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Remembering September 15th: Apple launches new products and Huawei chips officially cut off supply


2020 Apple Autumn New Product Launch Conference: No iPhone 12

 

At 10:00 am on September 15th, US time (1:00 am on September 16th, Beijing time), the annual Apple Autumn New Product Launch Conference was officially held online.

 

The key point is that there is really no iPhone 12 in this conference!

 

A total of four products, Apple Watch Series 6, iPad Air 4, iPad 2020, and Apple Watch SE, were released at the meeting.

 

 

Unlike in the past, this year Apple's flagship chip, the A14 Bionic processor, was not launched on the new iPhone, but on the 2020 iPad Air. Compared with the Apple A13 chip, the CPU is increased by about 15%, and the GPU is increased by about 10%.

 

The impact of the ban on Huawei's fermentation: next year's mobile phone shipments may drop off a cliff

 

On September 15, U.S. time, the U.S. ban on Huawei officially came into effect, and the supply of Huawei chips will be officially cut off. Coincidentally, Huawei was established on September 15, 1987, and its 33rd birthday will be a special birthday.

 

In the first half of 2020, Huawei achieved operating income of 450.656 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.65%; net profit was 43.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.49%. This also means that Huawei earned nearly 237 million yuan a day in the first half of the year. With the ban taking effect and fermenting, Huawei's revenue situation is not optimistic in the industry's view.

 

The highlights of Huawei mobile phones and even HiSilicon chips may end in the second half of 2020. Even if Huawei frantically purchased key chips to increase its inventory before the ban, the industry expects it to maintain its smartphone business for at most one year. According to a person in the industry chain: "According to our forecast, even if Huawei uses all the key chips it plans, its smartphone shipments will still shrink next year, possibly by more than 50%."

 

Some industry consulting agencies estimate that due to the previous increase in inventory, Huawei’s smartphone shipments this year will still reach about 195 million units. However, if the US ban is still not relaxed or changed, then Huawei’s smartphone shipments will drop to 50 million units next year. Left and right, there is at least a market space of more than 100 million smartphones in the market.

 

At present, many mobile phone manufacturers including Samsung, Apple and OPPO are adjusting their supply chain orders. Taking OPPO as an example, it has confirmed that it has added orders to the supply chain to 110 million units. Compared with the sales volume of more than 50 million units in the first half of the year, OPPO expects that the sales volume in the second half of the year will nearly double. Xiaomi also replaced Huawei in the top three camps in the European market. On the other hand, for Huawei, it seems that the decline in smartphone shipments from the second half of the year to next year is inevitable. The main reason is that Huawei's "coreless" is available.

 

Huawei is eager to ensure the supply of chips related to its 5G smartphones, but the US sanctions can basically be regarded as cutting off various ways for Huawei to manufacture or outsource chips. Even if Huawei can stockpile a large number of various chips before the deadline, other businesses such as Huawei's smartphones will inevitably suffer. It is difficult to rely on stock chips for new product development.

 

The 5nm chip Kirin 9000 produced by Huawei at TSMC is about 8-10 million pieces. According to Huawei's plan, in addition to being used in the Mate 40 series mobile phones released in the second half of the year, it may also be used in the P50 series next year. In other words, judging from the history of Huawei's two flagship mobile phone series that have shipped more than 10 million in the past, this year's Mate 40 series may be seriously out of stock.

 

In addition, we learned from mobile phone channel suppliers that Huawei's shipment volume has decreased by more than 30%. At the same time, he told reporters: "Huawei may control shipments. After all, at this stage, Huawei's stock chips are used less and less, so it is appropriate to maintain a certain market supply." It can extend the time accordingly, keep the heat of Huawei mobile phones, and get more buffer time."

 

The mobile phone market is trapped, and the full-scenario ecological market comes to the rescue. In addition to promoting mobile phones, Huawei's product line has also expanded to notebook MateBook, tablet computer MatePad, watches, wristbands and wireless earphones. The income of products other than mobile phones is equally important, and the growth rate is very fast. In addition, there is cooperation in Huawei's ecological chain, and the huge IoT market revenue is also steadily increasing. These are indispensable sources for Huawei's survival.

 

It is understandable for Huawei to use the limited Kirin 9000 on its latest flagship product. Because of this, some industry analysts revealed that Huawei’s sub-brand Honor will also make sacrifices, and its new mobile phone product originally planned to be launched in September will also be postponed. Or cut it off. December has always been the update cycle of the Honor V series, and this year seems to be very difficult.

 

At present, Huawei's "de-Americanization" has made some progress. After the United States announced sanctions last year, the domestic production rate of the first flagship mobile phone released by Huawei was less than 30%. However, the domestic production rate of the P40 flagship phone released this year has exceeded 86%. During the sanction period, Huawei has completed the transformation from launching Hongmeng OS and HMS to iterating to Hongmeng OS 2.0, and HMS has grown into the world's third largest mobile application ecosystem.

 

After the "supply cut off", Huawei's low-end and mid-range models can use other chips to replace Kirin chips. For example, SMIC provided Huawei with the low-end mobile phone chip Kirin 710A in May this year, and applied it to the Honor Play 4T mobile phone. However, it is worth noting that SMIC may also be affected by the US ban. Some foreign media reports pointed out that the US government is considering putting SMIC on the trade blacklist, which has hit SMIC's production.

 

According to CCTV Finance and Economics citing relevant data released by the State Council on August 19, China's chip self-sufficiency rate will reach 70% in 2025, while in 2019 my country's chip self-sufficiency rate is only about 30%.

 

Practice has proved that key core technologies cannot be bought or negotiated. Only by holding key core technologies in our own hands can we fundamentally guarantee national economic security, national defense security and other security.

 

Right now, China's chip industry is engaged in a war without gunpowder. The outcome of this battle should be evaluated over a period of ten years or even longer.

 

We should not doubt Huawei's determination to overcome difficulties, and we should not underestimate the ability and tenacity of Chinese scientists. For Huawei, this is undoubtedly a painful and difficult moment, but this may also be the beginning of the nirvana of Huawei, and even the entire Chinese chip industry.

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